Mercedes can wrap up the Constructors' Championship at this weekend's São Paulo Grand Prix. They lead Ferrari by 126 points, and if they outscore Ferrari by three points or more at Interlagos, the title is settled with three rounds still to run. It would be their first constructors' crown since 2021.
The magic number is three
According to Formula1.com, Mercedes are 126 points clear of Ferrari with four rounds remaining. No sprints are left, so a maximum of 172 points is still on the table, with 43 the most a team can take from one race.
After São Paulo that figure drops to 129. If Mercedes extend their advantage over Ferrari by three points, Ferrari cannot catch them even by winning every point left. PlanetF1 reports the same condition: finish at least three points ahead of Ferrari and Mercedes are champions.
Ferrari's recent form
The trend is not on Mercedes' side. Formula1.com notes that Ferrari have outscored Mercedes by 34 points over the past four rounds. In Mexico, Ferrari took 30 points from second and fourth place, out of a possible 43.
Kimi Antonelli finished third and George Russell sixth for Mercedes. Formula1.com says Mercedes lost only nine points to their closest rivals in that race.
Ferrari team principal Frédéric Vasseur said of the team's upgrade push: "Honestly they are pushing like hell to bring upgrades, they are working night and day." He gave no specifics.
What to watch in São Paulo
PlanetF1 notes that Mercedes have not won in Brazil since Russell's maiden victory in 2022. McLaren's Lando Norris won last year's race.
Per McLaren's preview, local times (GMT-3) are: FP1 Friday 12:30, FP2 Friday 16:00, FP3 Saturday 11:30, qualifying Saturday 15:00 and the race on Sunday at 14:00. That is 18:00 UTC for qualifying and 17:00 UTC for the race. It is round 20 of the season, run over 71 laps.
Whether the constructors' title falls this weekend will be decided in Sunday's race. The fight over those three points starts in qualifying.
